Research article

DOI: 10.15287/afr.2020.1989

Comparison of various growth functions for predicting long-term stand development associated with different initial spacing in 64-year-old Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica (L.f.) D. Don) plantations

Che-Yu Shih, Tian-Ming Yen , Ya-Nan Wang

Che-Yu Shih
Department of Forestry, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung City
Tian-Ming Yen
Department of Forestry, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung City. Email: tmyen9999@gmail.com
Ya-Nan Wang
School of Forestry and Resource Conservation, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Section 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei

Online First: June 28, 2021
Shih, C., Yen, T., Wang, Y. 2021. Comparison of various growth functions for predicting long-term stand development associated with different initial spacing in 64-year-old Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica (L.f.) D. Don) plantations. Annals of Forest Research DOI:10.15287/afr.2020.1989


Establishing a plantation with varied distances between trees is one way to control stand density. Understanding how stand growth patterns are influenced by initial spacing can help maximize growth and yield. The purpose of this study was to examine the long-term effects of different patterns of initial tree spacing on stand development. A spacing trial with 5 initial distances, namely, treatments I: 1×1 m, II: 2×2 m, III: 3×3 m, IV: 4×4 m and V: 5×5 m, was installed in 1950 on Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) plantations in central Taiwan, managed by the Experimental Forest of National Taiwan University. Each treatment had 3 repeated plots, and all the plots were surveyed from 1955 to 2014, with 8 records for each time series. We simultaneously employed 6 growth functions to predict stand basal area growth for each plot and assessed their predictability using the root mean square error (RMSE) as a criterion. Consequently, a total of 15 plots covering all the treatments, each with 6 RMSEs resulting from various models, were obtained. The repeated measures analysis of variance approach was adopted to compare predictability among models. The Richards growth function stood out from all the other models. As a result, this model was used to analyze stand development following different initial spacing. We found that the predicted curves could effectively exhibit the growth patterns resulting from different initial spacing. Moreover, the parameters help explain some characteristics of stand development, such as the growth potential and the maximum growth rate achieved (tmax). As a result, a clear trend emerged, showing that the growth potential increased, whereas the tmax decreased with decreasing initial spacing. These results provided valuable information for managing the stand density of this conifer.

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