Timber as a low-carbon material strategy: A systematic review of substitution effects and mitigation potential in building systems
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15287/afr.2026.4342Keywords:
timber substitution, cross-laminated timber (CLT), embodied carbon, displacement factor, systematic review, low-carbon construction, carbon sequestration.Abstract
The building sector is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. Substituting carbon-intensive materials with timber presents a significant, yet not fully quantified, climate mitigation opportunity.
This systematic review synthesizes three decades of global research to quantify the timber substitution effect in the built environment. Its primary objectives are to: (1) consolidate displacement factors and emission reduction ranges from life-cycle assessments, (2) evaluate systemic barriers and enablers for adoption, and (3) provide actionable insights for policy and research.
A structured literature search (1990–2024) was performed using Web of Science and Google Scholar. From 12,526 initial records, 12,320 unique studies were screened. Following a full-text review, 80 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis, with 68 providing quantitative data for meta-analysis. A mixed-methods framework combined bibliometric and thematic synthesis.
The analysis confirms a robust substitution effect. Replacing steel with wood avoids 2.3 kg of CO₂ per kg of wood, while substituting concrete saves 1.4 kg CO₂/kg. In whole-building systems, emission reductions range from 36 to 530 kg CO₂-equivalents per m³ of wood. When sourced sustainably, timber serves as a long-term carbon store, with life-cycle assessments showing 34–84% lower climate impact in multi-story applications. Scaling timber use could reduce sector emissions by 20–30% by 2050. Key barriers include prescriptive building codes, fire safety perceptions, and uneven forest governance.
Timber substitution is a viable, scalable mitigation pathway. Realizing its potential requires updated building codes, carbon pricing mechanisms, and certified sustainable forestry. Future research must standardize life-cycle assessment methods and address geographic literature gaps. This transition can simultaneously advance climate goals, circular economy principles, and green job creation.
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